Health impact modelling helps us understand current health burdens and potential impacts of scenarios & policies. Policies in urban transport and resulting travel patterns have significant impact non-communicable dsieases, but only few studies have modelled the health impact of these determinants in low and middle income countries. Uncertainty analyses undertaken as part of health impact modelling can also be used to investigate how important lack of data are for decision making and result estimation.

Research objectives

The main objectives in this work are:

  • To explore data for transport health impact modelling in African and the Caribbean cities, looking at travel behaviour, physical activity, road injuries and air pollution
  • To model the health impact of transport in cities with sufficient data (The minimum data required are travel behaviour and traffic injuries)


Research methods include:

  • Systematic data search from national institutes of statics, published work and key contacts
  • Comparative Risk Analysis in Health Impact Assessment

Outputs and impacts

This GDAR collaboration has already supported the first Africa specific modelling work (with stakeholder engagement) and the inclusion of African settings within international modelling and travel behaviour analysis studies.


Research lead / key contact: James Woodcock (Cambridge, UK)

Study team:

  • Lambed Tatah (Cambridge, UK)
  • Kufre Okop (UCT, South Africa)

Links and resources